The Watch Market in October 2026: Where Prices Stand

The number

The Unaged Luxury Watch Index stands at 118.5 for 2026 so far (2020 = 100). That is 5.8% above 2025, the low of this cycle at 112.0, and 16.8% below the top of 2022 at 142.4.

Criterion	Index (2020 = 100)
2020	100.0
2021	125.9
2022	142.4
2023	122.1
2024	116.1
2025	112.0
2026, year to date	118.5

A repeat-sales index: each reference is compared only with itself from year to year, so a change in which watches trade cannot move it. The method and the full series are on the Index page.

What collectors are asking for

The Market Pulse ranks the references moving right now. In October 2026 the list reads like a colour chart:

Criterion	Dial	Estimate
1. Rolex Datejust 41, 126334	Green	$19,100
2. Rolex Datejust 31, 278273	Green, diamond markers	$25,000
3. Rolex Datejust 31, 278274	Grey, diamond markers	$16,900
4. Rolex Datejust 36, 126234	Green	$15,500
5. Rolex Datejust 41, 126300	Green	$12,500
6. Rolex Datejust 41, 126333	Green	$21,000
7. Rolex Day-Date 40, 228238	Green	$72,500
8. Rolex Sky-Dweller, 336934	Green	$28,500
9. Rolex Datejust 31, 278271	Silver, diamond markers	$20,000
10. Rolex Daytona, 126503	Black, diamond markers	$33,500

Seven of the ten carry a green dial, and seven are a Datejust. Behind them sit another green Datejust, the 278383, then the Royal Oak 26240ST in green, the Aquanaut 5168G in green and the Daytona 126500LN in white.

Three things the data says

1. This is a recovery, not a boom. Since 2020 the index shows one bubble and one long correction. 2026 is the first rise since 2022, and it is modest.
2. On the same Datejust, the dial alone moves the price by a fifth or more. The same 126334 is worth $19,100 with a green dial and $15,900 with a silver one: a 20% gap for the colour alone. Our dial-by-dial guide to the 126334 has every named dial.
3. Sport steel still trades far above list. A white Daytona 126500LN is worth 2.4 times its US list price; a grey Nautilus 7118/1A 2.5 times. Further down, the Code 11.59 and the ceramic Offshore sit at half of list or less. The full table is in Above and below retail.

Our view

The colour premium is the fashion layer of this market, and fashion is the part that moves first. Green fills seven of the ten places on the most-quoted list today; if taste turns, that 20% is what gives way, not the watch underneath. If you love green, buy it and wear it. If you are buying with one eye on resale, the plain dials of the most-quoted references are where the value sits in 2026: the same watch, without paying for the trend.

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Figures are Unaged Luxury estimates as of October 24, 2026: retail-equivalent, full set unless stated, from the recent market. Estimates, not offers. Figures the site marks as limited data rest on few recent records. Reference numbers in the text link to their live value pages, which move with the market.