Above and Below Retail: What Popular Watches Trade At Against Their List Price
A white Daytona trades at 2.4 times its list price; a Code 11.59 at half of it. We set our estimates against the makers' own US prices, reference by reference.
"Retail" is the price the maker sets for a new watch. "The market" is what a collector pays for one today. The gap between the two is the most useful single number in this business: it tells you how hard a watch is to get, and how much of its price is the brand and how much is demand. We set our estimates against the makers' own US list prices, as they listed them in October 2026. A figure above 1.0x means the market pays more than list; below 1.0x, less.
Well above list
| Criterion | US list | Estimate | Against list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167A, grey | $27,257 | $85,000 | 3.1x |
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 7118/1A, grey | $35,884 | $88,500 | 2.5x |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Jumbo 16202ST, blue | $40,100 | $102,000 | 2.5x |
| Rolex Daytona 126500LN, white | $16,900 | $41,000 | 2.4x |
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 5726/1A, blue | $62,766 | $149,000 | 2.4x |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15510ST, blue | $31,900 | $64,000 | 2.0x |
| Rolex Daytona 126500LN, black | $16,900 | $34,000 | 2.0x |
| Rolex GMT-Master II 126710GRNR | $11,800 | $23,000 | 1.9x |
Above list, by less
| Criterion | US list | Estimate | Against list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLNR | $11,800 | $19,900 | 1.7x |
| Rolex Datejust 41 126334, green | $11,650 | $19,100 | 1.6x |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 26240ST, green | $44,400 | $70,000 | 1.6x |
| Rolex Day-Date 40 228238, green | $50,400 | $72,500 | 1.4x |
| Rolex Submariner Date 126610LN | $11,350 | $15,900 | 1.4x |
| Rolex Submariner 124060 | $10,050 | $13,500 | 1.3x |
| Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph 26331ST, blue | $43,000 | $50,500 | 1.2x |
Well below list
| Criterion | US list | Estimate | Against list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Audemars Piguet Code 11.59 15210OR, white | $39,100 | $19,400 | 0.5x |
| Vacheron Constantin Patrimony 4000U/000R, silver | $57,500 | $21,000 | 0.4x |
Across every reference where we could pair a maker's list price with our own estimate for the same dial, the median Rolex trades at 1.25 times list, the median Audemars Piguet at 1.19 times and the median Patek Philippe at 1.07 times. Vacheron Constantin sits at 0.84 times and Tudor at 0.79 times.
Our view
Two lessons. First, "above retail" is a property of a handful of references, not of a brand: the median Patek is close to list, while its steel sport watches trade at two or three times. Second, the watches far below list are where an informed buyer finds the best craftsmanship per dollar in 2026. A Patrimony or a Code 11.59 bought at 40% to 50% of list has already taken the depreciation a new buyer pays on day one. They will not double, but they are honest watches at honest prices. The ones at 2.5 times list are the opposite bet: you are paying for scarcity, and scarcity is a decision the maker can change.
Figures are Unaged Luxury estimates as of October 24, 2026: retail-equivalent, full set unless stated, from the recent market. Estimates, not offers. Figures the site marks as limited data rest on few recent records. Reference numbers in the text link to their live value pages, which move with the market. US list prices are the makers' own, as their US sites and price services showed them in October 2026.