Luxury Watches as Investments in 2026: What Still Holds Value

The Market After the Correction

The luxury watch market peaked in 2021 and early 2022. Rolex Submariners were trading at two to three times retail. Patek Philippe Nautilus references were reaching prices that seemed disconnected from any rational valuation. Richard Mille pieces were selling within hours of listing.

Then the correction came. By late 2022 and through 2023, prices on many references fell significantly. Some buyers who had purchased at peak prices found themselves holding watches worth considerably less than they had paid.

In 2026, the market has stabilized. Some references have recovered. Others have not. Understanding which is which is essential for anyone thinking about watches as an investment. For a broader overview of current market conditions, see our luxury watch market trends 2026 post.

What Has Held Value

Rolex sports references. The Submariner, GMT-Master II, and Daytona have all held their value better than most of the market. They corrected from peak pricing but have stabilized at levels that still represent a premium above retail. The pre-owned Rolex investment case remains intact for buyers who purchased at reasonable prices.

Patek Philippe Nautilus and Aquanaut. The 5711 and 5167 corrected significantly from their 2021 to 2022 peaks but remain well above retail. The depth of the Patek collector base provides a floor that more speculative references lack. The Nautilus secondary market guide covers current pricing in detail.

F.P. Journe across the collection. F.P. Journe has been one of the most resilient segments of the market through the correction. The brand's limited production, genuine horological merit, and devoted collector base have kept demand strong. The Chronometre Bleu, Tourbillon Souverain, and Resonance have all held value well. For buyers who purchased F.P. Journe at reasonable prices, the investment case has been strong.

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Jumbo (15202). The 39mm Royal Oak in steel has held its value better than the 41mm 15500, which corrected more significantly. The Jumbo's status as the original Royal Oak and its thinner movement give it a collector premium that the larger reference does not fully share.

What Has Not Held Value

Speculative Richard Mille references. The most hyped Richard Mille references, particularly limited editions and collaborations, corrected sharply. The core references like the RM 011 and RM 035 have held up better, but buyers who paid peak prices for limited editions have generally not fared well.

Non-iconic Patek Philippe references. The correction was most severe for Patek references that had been bid up on speculation rather than genuine collector demand. Dress watches and complications that are not the Nautilus or Aquanaut corrected more than the sports references.

Watches bought at peak retail premiums. Any watch purchased at 2x or 3x retail in 2021 to 2022 has almost certainly declined in value. The correction was a reminder that secondary market premiums are not permanent.

The Principles That Have Not Changed

The correction reinforced several principles that experienced collectors have always known:

Buy what you would wear. A watch you love wearing is worth its price regardless of secondary market performance. A watch you bought purely as an investment is only worth what someone will pay for it.

Condition matters more than ever. In a corrected market, buyers are more selective. A watch in excellent condition with original papers will always find a buyer faster and at a better price than the same reference in poor condition.

Iconic references outperform. The Submariner, the Nautilus 5711, the Royal Oak Jumbo, the Chronometre Bleu, these references have collector bases that provide a floor. Lesser-known references do not have the same protection.

Buy from reputable sources. The correction has made buyers more careful, which means provenance and authentication matter more. A watch with a clear history from a reputable dealer is easier to sell than one with uncertain origins.

The Outlook for 2026

The market in 2026 is healthier than it was at the peak. Prices are more rational. The speculative buyers who drove the 2021 to 2022 surge have largely exited. What remains is a market driven by genuine collectors and enthusiasts, which is a more stable foundation.

For buyers with a long time horizon, the core references from Rolex, Patek Philippe, F.P. Journe, and Audemars Piguet remain sound investments when purchased at fair prices. The key is buying right, which means understanding condition, provenance, and current market pricing before you commit.

At UNAGEDLUXURY, we can advise on current pricing for specific references and help you identify pieces that represent genuine value in the current market. Contact us to discuss what you are looking for.